Monday, June 07, 2010

Second half of the season


Good game vs St George in dire rainy conditions. A really strong effort from the boys but just too much dropped ball against a pretty classy side. Pity about the result and a pity about Tate's jaw putting him out for the season. So we face the remainder of the season, and next season, without Tate and Price.

Vatuvei came through the game fit and Mannering is fit and solid. So this is good news. Isaac John put in a good performance and Seymour will be fit and back in the side eventually. I am banking on Seymour returning in time for the Warriors v Eels on 4 July (round 17) - when I will be in attendance at Mt Smart once again. Lets hope the weather is a bit better then.

Before then we have to face the Knights away next up (rnd 14) followed by a bye week (round 15) and then the Roosters away (round 16). Right now we sit 11th - 2pts outside the eight with one game left in the round).

So with only 12 games left to play - lets have a quick look ahead to the countdown to oblivion. I estimate that with the storm out of the picture this year we need only at least 28 points to make the playoffs. Right now we have 12 points with a bye in hand - so that will give us 14 points. So we need a further 14 points, or seven wins at least out of our last 12 games - to make the playoffs.

Our run home looks like this (table positions are as of right now with one game left in the round):

Round 14 - Knights - 12th - (a)
Round 15 - bye
Round 16 - Roosters - 9th - (a)
Round 17 - Eels - 8th - (h)
Round 18 - Panthers - 2nd - (a)
Round 19 - Storm - 16th (=1st) -(h)
Round 20 - Rabbitohs - 6th - (a)
Round 21 - Titans - 5th - (h)
Round 22 - Sharks - 13th - (a)
Round 23 - Knights - 12th - (h)
Round 24 - Sea Eagles - 3rd - (a)
Round 25 - Broncoes - 7th- (h)
Round 26 - Eels - 8th - (a)

So of all these teams only the Knights and Sharks are placed lower than us in the table. Fortunately we get to play the Knights twice. So we have to beat them both times to stand a chance. We also likely have to beat the Roosters so we need our next two games to be wins.

So lets say we can beat the Knights twice, and get wins against the Sharks and Roosters, thats four wins in hand - we need to find three more - looks tough as we have to play the improving Eels twice as well as the 2nd place Panthers, the 3rd place Sea Eagles, 5th place Titans and the Storm, again.

I would say Broncoes and Rabbits are winnable - so that means we need at least one more win and Titans at home is where I am going to hang my hat. Although splitting our games with the Eels would also help.

3 comments:

Dan said...

Hmmm - think the playoff are gone - am guessing we will just miss the playoffs - although agree with your maths and analysis on the games that can be won. Why am I not amazed that Hayne gets off on the headbutting charge - the NRL judiciary is a joke - Thurston should have gone last week for his rant - it seems the judiiciary acts at two levels - one for the OZ superstars of the game - and the other level being any NZ and the second level players. Speaking of which how come Jamie Lyon walking out on his teammates is never discussed but SBW is treated like the plague - yours in angrt from Vancouver Dan

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