Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Warriors v Bulldogs and run home breakdown

Shocking result in Origin with Lockyer and the Maroons pulling out a great series win.

Warriors have confirmed the signing of Wade McKinnon as the effective replacement at fullback for the Leeds bound Brent Webb. This may be genius or it may be a disaster but I trust Cleary who seems to be pretty smart in his recruitment to date. Sorry to see Webb go though he has been a great servant to the club and it is something of a pity that he won't be in the NRL anymore.

I have been looking at the run home for the Warriors as set out in the post below which requires them to win six from their remaining eight games in order to get to 28 points which has been the cut-off for the top-eight the last couple of years. However there is presently a logjam on the table around the eighth spot and lets take a look at each of those teams.

7th Cowboys - 18 points , +37 diff
8th Manly - 18 points, +14 diff
9th Raiders - 18 points, -55 diff
10th Tigers - 16 points, -22 diff
11th Panthers - 16 points, -60 diff
12th Warriors - 14 points, +97 diff

So its clear that but for the points deduction the Warriors would be at the top end of this group and would be a strong 7th by way of points difference. Each of the three teams 7-9 has a bye like the Warriors so effectively each need only a further four wins from eight games to hit the 28 point target as compared to the Warriors who as noted above need six wins. If we look further down the table we see the Tigers in 10th with 16 points, also with a bye in hand so they need five games to make the 28 point target, Panthers also on 16 but they have used both byes so like the Warriors need six from eight to make the 28 points. So what to make of all this - I guess the possibility is that there may be a logjam of teams on or about 28 points at seasons end. Points diff will be crucial and the Warriors are doing well there. Warriors play only the Panthers and Cowboys of this group and need to win those games - but they would need to win them anyway.

However there is also a possibility that if two or more of these teams continue to play well on the run home the cut-off for eighth spot will actually be 30 or more points meaning that that the Warriors miss out even if they can win six games. I think this is unlikely however these are all teams have something to play for with the top six a virtual lock for the playoffs already needing three or less wins to confirm their playoff spots. So should be an interesting few weeks in the NRL with plenty of upset potential!

All the best for the boys v Doggies this week. Hopefully we can see Hohaia knocking down Mason a few times for some turnover ball as he did a season or two ago in the early rounds at a game I attended at Ericksson.

1 comment:

James D said...

Go the warriors - on a four game winning streak. If they make the cut they are fully redeemed in my eyes.